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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."