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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.